Background
1970's Energy Crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970s_energy_crisis
This was pretty disastrous.Ever since, the US has been working to avoid it ever happening again. Energy independence a long term goal.
US bans export on crude oil (1973)
http://www.cfr.org/oil/case-allowing-us-crude-oil-exports/p31005
Shale Revolution (ongoing)
Since fiasco of 70's, US has worked towards energy independence. Has taken a while for it to pay off, but pay day has finally arrived.
The Shale revolution long term in the making. It is changing the world very quickly and in profound ways. I can't stress how amazingly quickly things have progressed.
Technology
Technology advances and history
http://thebreakthrough.org/archive/history_of_the_shale_gas_revolution
Liquification of gas for storage and transport (Shell,youtube)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgtSoEJD9HE
Glut, energy independence and export potential
The decades long investment of research has turned things around completely for the US. Not long ago, energy independence was pure fantasy. Now the US is drowning in cheap energy.
Energy independence
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2013/11/congratulations-america-youre-almost-energy-independent-now-what-98985.html
Easy to watch, Shale Oil revolution in the US intro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_T-AwYOhp4
US refineries are configured to "run" on heavy oil
Ban lifted for light oil export
http://rt.com/usa/168248-us-allows-crude-oil-export/
First light shipment to South Korea
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11071584/Shell-urges-Obama-to-end-40-year-oil-export-ban.html
2011 US becomes net oil exporter. Maybe with help of severe european winter?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-29/u-s-was-net-oil-product-exporter-in-2011.html
Europe: LNG imports to Europe are forecasted to increase and stand at
approximately 104.5 million tonnes by 2020, driven heavily by nuclear
power phase-out decisions and the growth of gas-fired power stations.
http://www.lng-export-usa-2014.com/
More links
Slides from a conference for potential buyers
http://www.slideshare.net/LBCG/lng-export-usa
http://www.slideshare.net/Tehama/shale-gas-in-europe-revolution-or-evolution?related=2
Some global effects
Canada also has undergone similar revolution. Their export terminals
are located on the east coast, so they have a geographical advantage to
export to the Asian market.
http://www.arabnews.com/economy/news/623841
US exporting excess coal to Europe, not good for European carbon targets
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/oct/29/coal-threatens-climate-change-targets
The Geopolitics of Shale
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/geopolitics-shale#axzz3CbFP4KbL
Trans-atlantic tankers used to take diesel to Europe and gasoline to US. Now they travel empty towards the states.
http://newsandresearch.metisresources.com/2013/09/12/strong-u-s-diesel-exports-flip-atlantic-clean-tanker-market/
Crazy stuff in the middle east: William Engdahl on Syria, the Eurasian integration and the "shale revolution"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNet5aLKaWg
Europe is an ideal market for US LNG exports
- geographic proximity to export terminals on US east coast
- no need to transit via canals
- wealthy, high demand
- Europe want to reduce carbon emissions, LNG is ideal for this
- Fill gap due to closure of Nuclear plants
- Already established European infrastructure - regas import terminals, distribution pipelines
- friendly relations
- one problem - Europe already has plentiful supply from Russia
Overall history Ukraine-Russia Gas relations
It is very important to note Ukraine's position as a gas transit country.
Russia sells gas to Ukraine, it goes through two major pipelines through Ukraine, and is on-sold to Europe.
A significant portion of incoming European gas supply transits Ukraine.
Ukraine's economy is dependent on this transit business. They dependent on negotiating a good price from Russia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes
Timeline
2004-2005 Ukrainian Orange Revolution
Another US backed revolution in Ukraine. Similar to what has happened 2013-2014.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution
2008-2009 European Winter
What happens when the gas is cut off during winter
The importance of Ukrainian transit gas
11 people literally froze to death
http://www.foxnews.com/story/2009/01/08/putin-blames-eu-in-gas-crisis-as-europeans-freeze-to-death/
February 2008
Wikileaks cable predicts the future: Ukraine joining NATO threatens Russia, and would lead to civil war in Ukraine due to differences across Ukraine
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html#efmAB5ACs
2010
Yanukovych elected (supposedly pro-Russian)
He puts his opposing candidate in jail (Julia Tymoshenko)
The agreement Yanukovych signed with Gazprom/Russia for gas supply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Kharkiv_Pact
There some interesting wikileaks cables from this time and earlier
2010-2011
Multiple LNG gasification (export) terminals begin construction on US Atlantic coast,
Supposedly for domestic use
These are gasification terminals, and are very expensive to construct
Most are not online yet, but are getting there
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LNG_terminals#United_States
5 April 2011
World Shale gas report released by USA. USA showing an interest in shale around the world. They could export their technology and expertise.
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/
6 September 2011
Nord Stream pipeline opens, first gas pumped from Russia direct to Germany via North Sea. This reduces the need to transit gas through Ukraine, and dependency of Europe on Ukraine stability and pipeline access.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream
May 2012
Ukraine looking at diversifying Gas sources (away from Russian domination). This is under Yanukuvich government (who is supposed to be pro-Russian)
Early stages of developing shale gas on Ukrainian soil, Ukraine puts out tender;
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=39402
Qatar LNG imports, construct Odessa LNG regas (import) plant/port on the Black Sea. This later fell through, then revived again
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/ukraine-qatar-to-participate-in-lng-6320
http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/ukraine-lng-terminal/
December 2012
Odessa LNG terminal fell through, scandal, possibly by Russian interference/sabotage
http://news.kievukraine.info/2012/12/scandal-mars-launch-of-ukrainian-lng.html
May 2013
Ukraine choose Royal Dutch Shell as a partner to develop the Yuzovska field. In eastern Ukraine.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/01/24/uk-shale-ukraine-idUKBRE90N11S20130124
12 September 2013/January 2014
Shale exploration and development, different contracts signed
Royal Dutch Shell deal, $10 billion deal in east current conflict zone.
Chevron signs in west Ukraine.
50 year deals.
Map:
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/ukraines-oil-and-natural-gas-reserves.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-21191164
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/01/24/uk-shale-ukraine-idUKBRE90N11S20130124
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-gas-deal-shell-yuzovska/25104396.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/06/business/international/chevron-and-ukraine-sign-deal-on-shale-gas.html
21 November 2013
Euromaidan protests begin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan
November 2013
Free trade agreement with EU. Yanukovych refused to sign it. Possibly because he did not want to lose Russian gas discounts. EU not happy. Dissenters in Kiev not happy. Protests ramp up
http://www.voanews.com/content/eu-may-delay-ukraine-trade-deal-/1865445.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93European_Union_Association_Agreement
December 2013
US Senator John McCain visits Ukraine. Meets with euromaidan protestors and Tymoshenko's daughter.
8 January 2014
Former Ukrainian Finance minister joins US Great East Energy board
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/business/former-acting-ukrainian-finance-minister-joins-us-great-east-energy-board-334746.html
January 2014
Yanukovich passes laws to repress protests. Protests escalate
Police and government forces move against protestors
14 January 2014
Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF gives a
very strange speech.
Google bloggers who talk about it. Numerology, links with MH17, really strange.
Especially coming from the Head of the IMF!
She refers to the G8 as G7, months before Russia was dropped.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUXTzVj5-uE
7 February 2014
"fuck the EU" Victoria Nuland phone conversation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Amd4l0OtKkA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jkr4Wzixf0
Nuland discusses with US/Ukraine ambassador who they want to put in new government
$5 billion in US "aid" for Ukraine
MSM focus on her saying a swear word... however should be focusing on the actual conversation about installing a puppet government
10 February 2014
"I am a Ukrainian" posted, goes viral on youtube
Social media war starts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hvds2AIiWLA
http://www.infowars.com/exposed-ukrainian-protesters-backed-by-kony-2012-style-scam/
18 February 2014
Ukrainian opposition meets with Angela Merkel?? source??
21 February 2014
Yanukovych agrees to holding early elections, and constitution amendments. Too little too late, any case those that plotted it don't want him negotiating, they want him gone.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/21/ukraine-agreement-signed-early-election_n_4830727.html
Ukrainian Revolution, Maiden
- this is quite significant, a lot happening, there are plenty of sources to read more.
- to be honest I was probably blindsided by a lot of it, and have not pieced together how it fell apart over these few days
- protests and overthrow of government
- protestors being paid linked to Washington and the EU
- anti-protestors being paid by Russians
- Snipers shooting both pro-EU and pro-Russians with the same guns
- strange reporting in western MSM
- people walking in the private zoo??
- search for "Ukraine revolution Yanukovych" and lot of hits about his palace and zoo
- Yanukovych a fat cat who lived in a palace
- Yanukovych fleeing in a helicopter at night, with dramatic video footage of course
- Germany and US supporting the overthrow
- Allegation of backing of Nazi extremists, pictures of people wearing swastikas
- Search Azov batallion shield for Nazi links
- US trying to act like they have nothing to do with it.
- Note the LACK of statements from US officials. Hard to find anything, but if you do find anything, $50 says they use the phrase "peaceful protest".
- This a good article with background
http://blurredlinesblog.com/2014/03/31/the-ukrainian-revolution-what-started-it/
- Putin - from the horses mouth, hour long questioning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiKF8JN1qmk
22 February 2014
Yulia Tymoshenko released from prison.
She talks in Maidan square to protestors from her wheelchair with her farmers hair-do
She has not been treated well in prison, her health had deteriorated. She has been denied medical treatment
Not long before she is shaking hands with Angela Merkel
26 February 2014
Russia starts moving in to take back the east
Swift and efficient Russian occupation of Crimea
Russia previously signed a deal with the ex-Ukraine govt for black sea naval port lease, so may almost be legal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Kharkiv_Pact
Russia more subtle with other areas, denying involvement but probably providing support to rebels opposing the coup.
Civil war developing, new Ukrainian Government soon shelling rebel held towns in east.
If Russia are supporting, they being quiet about it probably because they don't want to involve NATO and start WW3.
Obama statement:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpS4BXif_Sw
March 2014
Russia suspended from G8 (alluded to by IMF speech 14 Jan) for being agressive
Crimea annexation and east Ukraine trouble effect on oil and gas hopes
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-11/losing-crimea-could-sink-ukraines-offshore-oil-and-gas-hopes
13 March 2014
Ukrainian Energy magnate Dmitry Firtash arrested in Austria (by the FBI!)
Powerful figure in old Ukraine government.
He owned a tv station which covered the Kiev Maiden protests which was not favourable to the protestors.
Currently stuck in Austria waiting extradition. $172m bail!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/ukrainian-energy-magnate-with-close-links-to-senior-tories-arrested-in-austria-after-fbi-investigation-9190366.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8Zt0ni9oSI
16 March 2014
Crimean referendum held. Results not accepted by world community. Putin rubber stamps annexation regardless. The west doesn't make any effort to observe, condone or legitimise the referendum, because they know what the result will be, even in a fair, properly observed election. The peninsular is overwhelmingly pro-Russian.
April 2014
According to Malaysia Airlines statement, International Civil Aviation Organization identified an area over the Crimean peninsula as risky. Unusual as by this time Crimea had been annexed and stable, whereas Luhansk, Donetsk were in active battle.
http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/mh17.html
Friday, July 18, 08:20 PM GMT +0800 Media Statement 4 : MH17 Incident
1 April 2014
Ukraine's gas bull rate increases by 81% when Gazprom overturns Yanukovych discount
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-03/russia-to-charge-ukraine-more-than-germany-as-gas-discounts-end.html
~12 April 2014
CIA John Brennan visits Kiev. Very secretive about it.
22 April 204
Joe Biden visits Kiev
May 2014
Joe Bidens son, Hunter Biden, appointed on Burisma Holdings board
http://news.yahoo.com/why-did-a-energy-firm-prospecting-for-gas-in-ukraine-hire-joe-biden-s-son-195339212.html
Also Devon Archer appointed
http://burisma.com/american-financier-devon-archer-joined-the-board-of-directors-of-burisma-holdings/
http://burisma.com/mr-devon-archer-today-burisma-holdings-reminds-me-of-exxon-in-its-early-days-2/
Burisma website in general;
http://burisma.com/
http://burisma.com/burisma-holdings-commends-us-lawmakers-efforts-support-ukrainian-energy-independence/
Odessa LNG regas (import) plant revived. Moving away from Russian gas is priority.
This is significant
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/business/government-revives-yanukovychs-lng-terminal-project-347955.html
9 May 2014
Victoria Nuland secretary of state grilled for financing Ukraine revolution (RT)
$5 billion spent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIjEEFdnzkw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TpZa4OMFVk
27 May 2014
Very interesting leaked document. EU and US plotting regarding oil/gas exports from the US to Europe.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/233022558/EU-Energy-Non-paper#fullscreen
3 June 2014
Royal Dutch Shell halts eastern Ukraine drilling, blames Kiev airstrikes for endangering operations. Perhaps field is not viable and this is an excuse? Note this is in proximity to MH17 crash site.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-03/ukraine-crisis-forces-shell-to-halt-shale-wells-in-restive-east.html
18 June 2014
Youtube, soldier reports that Ukrainian fighter jets hide behind commercial passenger airlines
Militia Soldier - Elena, from Sloviansk English Sub. See 1:07
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKKoKmUtQXE
June 2014
Russia cuts off gas supply because Ukraine hasn't been paying it's bills, and they refuse to do so. Ukraine has a few months worth in pipes, so they can survive for now. Cut off is limited to Ukraines supply, amount for transit gas not cut off.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/11/us-ukraine-crisis-gazprom-prepayment-idUSKBN0EM0FA20140611
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/17/world/europe/russia-gazprom-increases-pressure-on-ukraine-in-gas-dispute.html
27 June 2014
Russia warns Europe not to resell gas to Ukraine
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/russia-warns-europe-over-re-selling-gas-ukraine
9-13 July 2014
NATO training in the Black Sea. Operation "Sea Breeze"
NATO warships and lots of high-tech equipment in the Black Sea
http://www.aco.nato.int/-nato-warships-participate-in-exercise-breeze-2014-.aspx
17 July 2014
MH17 Plane shot down
Israel large invasion of Gaza within hour of plane going down
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/11/uk-ukraine-crisis-gas-idUKKBN0GB0ZQ20140811
Hillary Clinton on MH17. Maybe the same day it went down, very soon afterward.
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT.. Listen carefully, Especially at 2:14.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkTRJgDkNFg
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/20/what-happens-to-journalists-who-try-to-visit-the-mh17-morgue.html
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/ukraine-opposition-hurts-energy-independence/478230.html
July/August
Calls and implementation of sanctions against Russia
Putin blamed for MH17
Things escalate crazily
Post MH17 Events: http://georginaslinks.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/mh17-links-after-disaster.html
Ukraine events (non-MH17) continue here...
8 September 2014
Poroshenko sells gas transit to EU/US
http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2014/09/08/348019/ukraine-president-grants-foreign-companies-access-to-gas-pipeline.html
15-26 September 2014
Operation "Rapid Trident", US led military exercise planned, US boots on ground
http://www.voanews.com/content/us-to-lead-multinational-exercises-in-ukraine/2437833.html
